日本未来可能发生的几大地震：预测与防灾自救指南

Several major earthquakes that may occur in Japan in the future: predictions, scope of impact and disaster prevention and self-rescue guide Japan is located in the Pacific Rim of Volcanoes and Seismic Belt, one of the most active seismic areas in the world.About 20% of the world’s earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above occur in Japan.For foreign tourists visiting Japan, understanding possible major earthquakes and the correct response methods is important knowledge to ensure a safe trip.This article will introduce the predictions of several major earthquakes that will receive the most attention in the future and their scope of impact based on the latest official data from the Japanese government and the Meteorological Agency. 📊 List of Japan’s four major predicted earthquakes earthquake name scale Probability of occurrence within 30 years Main areas of influence Maximum number of predicted deaths Huge Earthquake in Torofu, South China Sea M8~9 about 80% Kanto to Kyushu Pacific Coast About 298,000 people Earthquake hits capital M7 level about 70% Tokyo metropolitan area About 23,000 people Sagami Torre Earthquake (Kanto Earthquake Type) M8 level 0～2% Kanto region, Kanagawa, Chiba about 70,000 people Japan Trench and Kuril Trench Earthquakes M9 level within decades Hokkaido to the Northeast Pacific Coast about 100,000 people 🌊 ① The huge Nankai Torofu earthquake—Japan’s most urgent threat What is Nankai Torofu? The Nankai Trough (Nankai Trough) is a trench-like terrain located in the sea from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to Hyuga Nada in Kyushu.Large-scale earthquakes occur at the plate boundaries in this region every 100 to 150 years.The last one occurred in 1944 (Showa Nankai Earthquake) and 1946 (Showa Nankai Earthquake). About 80 years have passed, and the urgency of the next earthquake is extremely high. Latest forecast (announced by the Cabinet Office in March 2025): Mainly affected areas: Tsunami arrival time: Within a few minutes to 30 minutes after the earthquake, a huge tsunami will reach the coastal areas!For example, Shimoda City in Shizuoka Prefecture predicts a tsunami with a maximum height of 31 meters. 🏙️ ② An earthquake hits the capital—a ticking time bomb in Tokyo What is the earthquake that struck the capital? Refers to an earthquake that occurs directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area.The earthquake had a shallow focus and high magnitude. Although it was M7 in magnitude (approximately 7.3), it was extremely destructive because it occurred directly beneath the megacity of Tokyo. Probability of occurrence: About 70% within the next 30 years Latest forecast (Cabinet Office Central Disaster Management Council): Infrastructure Impact: Note: The previous Taisho Kanto Earthquake (the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923) was M8.2, and the following scenario also requires precautions – the Taisho Kanto earthquake type (M8) may occur in the future (the probability is 0 to 2% in 30 years, and it is inevitable in the long run).By then, Tsunami can reach 6 to 8 meters off the coast of Kanagawa and Chiba. 🗺️ ③ Sagami Trouble Earthquake Japan Trench Earthquake Sagami Torre Earthquake: A major earthquake of the same type as the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. The area of impact was centered on Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Chiba.The magnitude of the earthquake was M8.Although the probability is low in the short term, if it occurs it will have catastrophic consequences.It is estimated that about 70,000 people will die, 1.33 million buildings will be damaged, and economic losses will be about 160 trillion yen. Japan Trench/Kurilshima Trench Earthquake: The same type as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.The earthquake source area is the Pacific coast from Tohoku to Hokkaido.Once it occurs, a huge tsunami will occur, and coastal areas from Northeast China to Hokkaido need to be on high alert. 🆘What to do when an earthquake occurs? 🪑 Three steps for indoor earthquake emergency response Step one: Drop Immediately squat down and lower your center of gravity.The most difficult thing to do during an earthquake is to maintain balance and squat down first. Step 2: Cover Get under a sturdy table and protect your head and neck with your hands.If there is no table, use a backpack, pillow or hands to protect your head and hide in a corner or against a load-bearing wall. Step 3: Hold On Hold on to something stable, such as a table leg, until the earthquake is over.Earthquakes can last from 30 seconds to several minutes. ⚠️ Never do: 🚗 When outdoors 🚃 In the tram/subway 🌊 Tsunami (Tinbo) Escape Knowledge Tsunamis may be the biggest killer after earthquakes.Most of the victims of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake were killed by the tsunami. Basic guidelines: Tsunami evacuation steps: If you feel a strong earthquake → run to higher ground immediately (don’t pack your luggage or wait for notification) Goal: Run to a place above 10 meters above sea level, or to a solid high-rise reinforced concrete building (above the third floor) Time: A tsunami can arrive within minutes, every second is precious Continue to evacuate: Never return to lower ground until the tsunami warning is lifted Understanding tsunami warning levels: 📱 Essential disaster prevention tools for travelers Recommended App Check when checking into hotel Carry it with you 🔔 Japanese key phrases for disaster prevention Japanese Chinese meaning pronunciation Earthquake! There was an earthquake! Jishin desu! It’s falling please calm down Ochitsuite 隠れてください please hide Kakurete kudasai The next step of the machine is to enter the machine hide under the table Tsukue no shita ni haitte Tsunami comes to you! The tsunami is coming! Tsunami ga kimasu! High place and refuge Take refuge in higher ground Takai tokoro e hinan shite Shelter はどこですか? Where is the refuge? Hinanjo wa doko desu ka? A real man? Are you okay? Daijoubu desu ka? 💡 Summary There is no need to panic when traveling to Japan, but being well prepared can make the journey more secure.I wish every friend who comes to Japan